NFL Conference Championship Round Preview: Who's Punching Their Ticket to Super Bowl LIX?

Published: Wednesday, January 22, 2025

by Ryan Nelke

After a much more exciting divisional round, the NFL landscape is officially down to its final four teams, with only three games remaining in the season.  

In the AFC, viewers are set for episode four in the Mahomes-Allen saga, as the Chiefs put the Texans to bed (not to mention the unsurprising help they got from the refs) and the Bills scraped by the Ravens, thanks to Mark Andrews's hands.  For the NFC, the Commanders knocked off the Lions, sending the Super Bowl favorites home early. This sets up an NFC East matchup against the Eagles, who held up a late-game push from the visiting Rams.

With the matchups set, there are some pretty massive storylines about each game.  Can Josh Allen finally slay the beast of Mahomes?  Will the Chiefs move to their third straight Super Bowl and give themselves a shot at the three-peat?  Can Jayden Daniels become the first-ever rookie QB to go to the Super Bowl?  Will Jalen Hurts be the first quarterback who lost in their first Super Bowl appearance to go back to the big game since Jim Kelly?  All that remains to be seen, but let’s get right into my predictions for this weekend’s games

Sunday 3:00 p.m. - (6) Commanders at (2) Eagles

Washington shocked the world this past Sunday when they took down the #1 seeded, 15-2 Lions, destroying their hopes of finally getting to the grandest stage of them all.  The Commanders did it in dominating fashion, winning 45-31, and couldn’t seem to be stopped on the offensive side of the ball.

Daniels threw for 299 yards and added 51 more on the ground, in addition to two TD passes.  Terry McLaurin also played a big part, most notably when he took a screen pass 58 yards to the house.  While the defense gave up 31 points, it still put together an impressive performance, forcing five turnovers

In Philadelphia, it was all Saquon Barkley, as he ran for 200+ yards for the second time this year against the Rams (255 yards vs LAR back in November). Barkley ripped off two massive touchdowns, with one being from 62 and the other from 78, which dramatically flipped the script of the contest.  Los Angeles made a late push, driving down into the red zone, but the Eagles' defense stood strong and staved off the upset, sending themselves to the NFC Championship Game.

Considering I picked against Washington for two straight weeks now, it is really hard to go down the same route again.  They split the season series against Philly, but their win came in the game in which Jalen Hurts left the game in the first quarter.

Additionally, they did not look their best earlier in the season in their loss to the Eagles.  Saquon Barkley is playing on another level right now, and could not be stopped by Washington in both outings this year.  Pair that with how stubborn this Eagles defense has been throughout the regular season and playoffs, I’m begrudgingly going to have to side with them.

PREDICTION: Commanders 24, Eagles 27

Sunday 6:30 p.m. - (2) Bills at (1) Chiefs

For the fourth time since 2021, these two rivals are set to meet again in a rematch of epic proportions.  Allen is still looking for his first win in this storied playoff series against Mahomes, as he gave himself the ability to do so this past Sunday by beating the Ravens 27-25.  The Bills were surprisingly home underdogs (+1), but came out strong as they led 21-10 at the half.  

Baltimore made a push in the second half, but Buffalo got some help when Andrews dropped the game-tying two-point conversion with under two minutes left.  Allen’s numbers were nothing to write home about, but he did not make any mistakes and did what was asked of him to punch Buffalo’s ticket to Arrowhead.

Kansas City put together another very Chiefs-like performance, as the defense took center stage in addition to getting some timely calls from the refs, resulting in a 23-14 win.  Mahomes was exceptional, but it was Travis Kelce who put together another vintage postseason performance, with seven receptions for 117 yards, and a touchdown. 

But outside of Kelce, there was not much else to note from the KC perspective, as even in a solid defensive outing, they did not force any turnovers. But hey, that’s the way the Chiefs have done things this year, and now they are only one game away from their third straight Super Bowl appearance.

Many said that Bills-Ravens was the game of the year, but now with a Bills-Chiefs AFC Championship rematch set up, playoff football does not get more peak than this.  The Mahomes-Allen rivalry is the new Brady-Manning showdown that the NFL saw for years; while Brady dominated, Manning eventually won.  The same will happen for Allen and company this year, as he’ll defy the Kansas City demons and send a very deserving Buffalo fanbase back to the Super Bowl for the first time since 1994.

PREDICTION: Bills 31, Chiefs 28

Ryan Nelke can be reached at ryan.nelke@student.shu.edu. 

 

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