Predicting the 2025-26 AFC South Turnout

Published: Wednesday, August 6, 2025

by Ryan Nelke

The AFC South is widely considered to be one of, if not the weakest divisions in the NFL this year, with the Texans as the frontrunners to win it for the third straight year.

Outside of Houston, the Jaguars season hinges on if Trevor Lawrence can live up to his #1 overall draft selection, while the Colts and Titans have little to look forward to this season.  So without further adieu, it is time to reveal my predictions for the 2025-26 AFC South.

The Houston Texans

The Texans cruised to another division title last year, as the rest of their division failed to play .500 football.  Despite winning the division, CJ Stroud notably regressed in year two, keeping Houston from becoming a true Super Bowl contender.  The Texans were able to take care of the Chargers in Wild Card Weekend, but had their season ended the very next week against the Chiefs.

The 2025 season brought about several changes, including the additions of CB CJ Gardner-Johnson, RB Nick Chubb, and WR Christian Kirk, but they traded away star LT Laremy Tunsil.  Moreover, RB Joe Mixon could potentially miss the beginning of the season, while WR Tank Dell is still without a timetable to return and WR Stefon Diggs is now in New England.

With all of this in mind, I still expect Houston to win the division with a 10-7 record as they present a solid defense led by CB Derek Stingley Jr. and EDGE Will Anderson Jr., but for them to go deep into the playoffs, it will depend on the progression of their franchise quarterback, CJ Stroud.

The Jacksonville Jaguars

After failed attempts by Urban Meyer and Doug Pederson to turn this Lawrence-led franchise into a perennial contender, the responsibility now falls upon former Bucs OC Liam Coen to achieve this task.  Lawrence has taken his team to the playoffs once, but outside of that, his track record looks much similar to a fellow AFC South quarterback in Daniel Jones.

The good news is that Coen helped Baker Mayfield put up the best numbers of his career in his lone season as their OC, and the hope is that he could work the same magic with Lawrence.  The Jags lost key pieces in WR Christian Kirk and TE Evan Engram, but traded up to take WR/CB Travis Hunter and hope for a bounce back year out of RB Travis Etienne Jr.

The best-case scenario for Jacksonville is that Coen develops Lawrence into one of the league's premier quarterbacks, but there is also the possibility that Lawrence does not take the jump and begins entering the all-time bust conversation.  I think the outcome might be closer to the latter end of the spectrum, and for those reasons, I have the Jags finishing 6-11.

The Indianapolis Colts

Say a prayer for Colts fans, as they have to bear witness to a QB battle between Anthony Richardson and Daniel Jones for the right to be their starter this year.  That alone is the reason why the Colts will not be able to be a serious competitor this year.

However, there are some bright spots and that starts with a healthy Jonathan Taylor, and as long as he is healthy, the offense will run through him.  Furthermore, Indianapolis took TE Tyler Warren in the first round, so it should be exciting to see the impact he has on this team right away.

Unfortunately, as already mentioned, this team will be held back by its quarterback play in the coming season and that leaves me with no other option than to predict the Colts will finish with a 4-13 record.

The Tennessee Titans

The Titans hope to have got their franchise back on path by selecting QB Cam Ward with the first overall pick in the 2025 draft, but there are still many questions as to what level he can perform at right away come September.  This will start with Tennessee needing big strides from an offensive line that was one of the worst last year.

The offensive weapons surrounding him are alright, as it presents WR Calvin Ridley and a running back tandem of Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears.  TE Chig Okonkwo will also be asked to take a step forward to help Ward succeed out of the gates.

Second-year head coach Brian Callahan will most likely need to pull off a miracle to get this team to the playoffs, as they are still in rebuild mode.  I think Ward will show bright spots over the course of the year, but I think this will still be a struggle of a season as they finish at 3-14.

Projected AFC South Standings

1) Texans (10-7)
2) Jaguars (6-11)
3) Colts (4-13)
4) Titans (3-14)

The AFC South appears to be the Texans division to lose, so find out how it all pans out when the NFL season kicks off on September 4th…

Ryan Nelke can be reached at nelkerya@shu.edu.

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