Predicting the 2025-26 NFC South Turnout

Published: Saturday, July 5, 2025

by Ryan Nelke

Many believed last year that the NFC South would be a two team race between the Buccaneers and Falcons, which it was for awhile.  However, Atlanta crashed and burned down the stretch, while Tampa stayed the course and won the division.

For Carolina and New Orleans, it was another rough campaign, and the outlook for the upcoming campaign is much different for the two squads.  Panthers faithful believes that Bryce Young is ready to take the next step, while those in New Orleans are already preparing for the #1 pick.  With that said, it is time to get into my predictions for the 2025-26 NFC South.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers

After winning the South for the fourth straight year, Tampa Bay is once again favored to take the divisional crown and for good reason.  First off, they return the majority of their 2024 roster, and the offense stayed intact when they brought back WR Chris Godwin on a three-year deal.  

With Baker Mayfield still at the helm, and a supporting cast that includes veteran WR Mike Evans, the up and coming RB Bucky Irving, plus the first round selection in WR Emeka Egbuka, this offense should be cooking once again this season.

The Bucs also addressed their need at edge rusher, bringing in Haason Reddick, and if he can get back to his usual self, it would be a massive help for this Tampa defense.  With this in mind, there is no reason to think that the Buccaneers will regress this year, and if anything changes, it would be them getting better.  For those reasons, I have Tampa winning the South at 10-7.

The Atlanta Falcons

Kirk Cousins had seemed to solve Atlanta’s problem at quarterback midway through the 2024 campaign, as they sat at 6-3 by the end of Week 9.  However, everything fell apart from there as it appeared that Cousins had forgotten how to play the position.  Cousins lost the next four contests and barely squeaked by the two-win Raiders, leading to his benching the next week.

Michael Penix Jr. assumed the starting role and was solid in his first three starts, but could not do enough to will the Falcons to the playoffs.  Following his opening act, he now gets a clean slate and has a supporting cast with plenty of starpower, as Atlanta boasts RB Bijan Robinson and WR Drake London.

On defense there are still several question marks, but Atlanta made a splash in the draft, drafting edge rushers Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr.  Ultimately, this Falcons team will go as far as Penix’s progression takes them this season, and for now, I believe it will keep Atlanta in contention, but not quite there just yet, as I have them finishing with an 8-9 record.

The Carolina Panthers

The Panthers seemed to be heading for disaster early on in 2024, as second year QB Bryce Young was benched two games in for Andy Dalton, following two horrific performances.  Young eventually got his job back in Week 8, and after dropping to 1-7 in a loss to the Broncos, the young QB seemed to turn the page.

Young won the next two, and then took Kansas City, Philadelphia, and Tampa Bay down to the wire in three consecutive contests.  Carolina finished 5-12, but progression from the former first overall pick was noticeable, so fans were able to take a silver lining from another losing season.

Just like Atlanta, Carolina’s season hinges upon the shoulders of their quarterback, and if Young can make a jump in his third NFL season.  However, despite the improvement in the second half of the season, I am not sold on this squad, as with a difficult schedule, I fear that they are heading for another 5-12 season.

The New Orleans Saints

There is not really much else to say than this season is going to be bad.  New Orleans enters 2025 with a QB room of second round rookie Tyler Shough, Spencer Rattler, and Jake Haener.  That is all one needs to realize that not many games will be won with any one of those quarterbacks leading the offense.

The rest of the offense is not entirely awful, as dual threat RB Alvin Kamara and WR Chris Olave are still hanging around for now, but the problem is that their success hinges upon the success of the quarterback.

Defensively, the Saints will have to rely on aging playmakers in Cameron Jordan, Demario Davis, and Tyran Mathieu, and considering their offense will most likely be one of the worst, it will put even more pressure on this end.  That said, there does not seem to be much to look forward to this year, and as a result, I have New Orleans finishing a league-worst 2-15.

Projected NFC South Standings

1) Buccaneers (10-7)
2) Falcons (8-9)
3) Panthers (5-12)
4) Saints (2-15)

The NFC South appears to be the Buccaneers division to lose this year, but it should be interesting to see if the Falcons or Panthers can tighten the race and close the gap.  Find out how it all pans out when the season kicks off on September 4th...

Ryan Nelke can be reached at nelkerya@shu.edu.

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