Where Will Juan Soto Sign This Offseason?
Published: Saturday, November 9, 2024
by Jacob Glick
Juan Soto will be the most discussed free agent on the market this offseason. Soto is coming off yet another phenomenal season, arguably the best of his career. The 26-year-old outfielder is on a Hall of Fame trajectory and is one of the few true superstars in the game today.
At 26 years old, Soto is expected to set the record for the largest present-value contract in baseball history. Shohei Ohtani’s 10-year, $700 million deal, valued at around $460 million due to deferrals, currently holds the title. ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote, “The industry agrees the floor for his contract will be $500 million,” citing Soto’s age as the key factor.
Soto reportedly turned down a 15-year, $440 million extension from the Washington Nationals in 2022, and he’s expected to command even more on the open market. Soto is projected to set records for both total contract value and average annual value (AAV). This type of deal is not only possible but likely for the 26-year-old, who posted a .288/.419/.569 line with a 180 wRC+, 31 doubles, 41 home runs, 109 RBIs, and 8.1 fWAR in 157 games during his first—and potentially only—season in the Bronx.
Few teams are likely to meet Soto’s price, but here are six potential suitors:
The Favorites
The New York Yankees, fresh off their first pennant win since 2009, have reasserted themselves as a top contender. Despite falling short in the World Series, the team showed its formidable potential—especially if they can retain Juan Soto. Together with Aaron Judge, Soto formed one of the most dynamic duos in Major League history, a combination that could make the Yankees perennial contenders in a relatively weak American League. Given last season’s success, the Yankees’ history of aggressive free-agent spending, and Soto’s established fit with the team, they are positioned as the frontrunners in the Soto sweepstakes.
The Runner-Up
New York Mets fans have long dreamed of seeing Juan Soto in blue and orange, a vision that seemed out of reach until recently. Since Steve Cohen's acquisition of the team and the strategic hiring of David Stearns, the possibility of Soto joining the Mets has gained serious traction. Rival executives now view the Mets as the Yankees' biggest obstacle in re-signing Soto, a belief only reinforced by the Mets’ impressive 2024 season, where they came within two wins of a World Series berth before falling to the champion Dodgers. With financial flexibility to make a record offer and a compelling vision for the future, the Mets have a legitimate chance to bring Soto to Queens next spring.
The Contenders
The Los Angeles Dodgers are no strangers to big-spending in free agency, having invested over $1 billion last offseason to secure Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. While that might suggest limited room for another high-priced player, the Dodgers are deferring $68 million of Ohtani's $70 million annually, freeing up significant payroll space. Fresh off a 2024 World Series victory over Soto’s Yankees, the Dodgers are once again positioning themselves to add another superstar. Soto, who has emphasized a desire to win while considering his financial worth, would have a prime opportunity to do so in Los Angeles. However, there are concerns regarding his potential interest in the move, as it’s believed Soto may prefer to remain in New York.
Don't Count Them Out
The Philadelphia Phillies are perhaps the most familiar team with high-profile free-agent pursuits, having won the Bryce Harper sweepstakes in 2019. The team has been one of the best in baseball in recent years, with three consecutive playoff appearances, a division title, and a National League pennant. Known for their willingness to spend when the time is right, the Phillies are poised to be a major contender for Soto's services. Given their recent success and strong roster, they present an attractive option for Soto, especially with geography being less of a concern compared to the Dodgers.
The Dark Horse
The San Diego Padres were considered by some as the favorites to win their NLDS matchup against the Dodgers, but despite the playoff exit, their future remains bright. The Padres have built a strong, well-run organization, combining a talented farm system with a willingness to spend on star players. Soto, whom the Padres acquired from the Nationals at the 2022 trade deadline, remains an enticing fit for their championship-contending roster. However, after failing to agree on a contract extension, Soto was traded to the Yankees, and with money to spend, the Padres still offer a competitive package. Yet, like with the Dodgers, geography could be a decisive factor in the sweepstakes, potentially working against San Diego’s chances.
Anything is Possible?
The San Francisco Giants have been active in the free-agent market for years, though they’ve had little success landing top-tier talent. The Giants famously outbid the Yankees in their pursuit of Aaron Judge, and just days later, they reached a 13-year, $350 million agreement with Carlos Correa, only for that deal to fall apart due to medical concerns. The Giants' best shot at landing Soto would be to blow away all competition financially, a scenario that’s unlikely but not impossible. While the team currently lacks a clear identity, their willingness to spend big could make them a dark-horse contender. After all, the franchise has been seeking a superstar since the departure of Barry Bonds, and with the right financial offer, anything is possible.
Jacob Glick can be reached at jacob.glick@student.shu.edu.Posted in: sports,